INSIGHT from pintail

Fact vs. Fiction in an AI World

CRE on AI + Social. What is Truth?

“There are 3 kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” – Mark Twain (1835-1910)

“What is Truth?” – Pontius Pilate (~33 AD)

Some existential questions persist throughout human history. Although misinformation, ignorance, and downright untruthfulness are by no means new, in our time of artificial intelligence (AI) and social media, the truth seems easy as ever to bend or outright manipulate.

Although well documented in social media communities, I’ve noticed a bent toward confirmation bias in my musings with AI (although asking Chat GPT to “challenge my thinking” is an interesting exercise). As with all technology tools, garbage in, garbage out. The assumptions always matter.

We sell, lease, develop, and own CRE. So why not get people excited about it? The excerpt below was produced by ChatGPT on 9/29/25 after prompting. Complete with Chat GPT’s signature iconography, this is ready for posting on LinkedIn.

Below is a draft of an exuberant LinkedIn post that flips the narrative and highlights the most exciting Southeast CRE stats — with a forward-looking call to action and a nod to rates coming down.

AUTHORED BY

Josh Tew, CCIM

Broker

CHAT GPT's Take on the Market:

🌟 The Southeast is still where the growth story lives. 🌟

Despite all the doom-and-gloom headlines, the fundamentals in our region are electrifying:

📈 80% of U.S. population growth over the past decade happened in the Sun Belt — and another 11 million new residents (+7%) are expected by 2033. That’s relentless demand.

🏙️ Atlanta ranked #4 nationally in CBRE’s 2025 Investor Intentions Survey. Capital is still flowing straight into our backyard.

🏡 Multifamily remains strong: Cap rates in Atlanta, Charlotte, and Raleigh are holding steady in the 4.75%–5.5% range — showing investor confidence in income stability.

🛍️ Retail is resurging: Across the Southeast, retail is taking the driver’s seat in mixed-use developments, fueling vibrant live-work-play environments.

⚡ South Carolina momentum: Retail vacancy projected to stabilize at just 4.1% in 2025. Data center expansions are bringing tech infrastructure and new jobs.

💡 And here’s the kicker: Rates are expected to come down in the near future. Combine that with population growth, capital flows, and resilient demand — and you have one of the most exciting CRE landscapes in the country.

🚀 Takeaway: The Southeast isn’t waiting for recovery. It is the growth engine.

👉 Where are you seeing the biggest opportunities in 2025? Let’s compare notes.

#CommercialRealEstate #Southeast #CRE #GrowthMarkets #SunBelt

Besides the fact that data centers don’t actually do much in the way for new jobs, I’m sure these factoids are generally correct. Wow, that’s great, let’s do some deals! We’ll send this version to our investor clients!

But ah – let’s say we decide it’s better for business to scare people? Maybe we’ll send this one to our seller prospects. Prompting Chat for an alarming LinkedIn-ready post, it generated the following:

Perfect — here’s the alarming Southeast CRE version written in the same energetic LinkedIn post format you liked in the exuberant draft.

⚠️ Not all that glitters in the Southeast CRE market is gold. ⚠️

Behind the headlines of growth, some very real cracks are showing:

🏢 Charlotte’s office vacancy hit 26.1% (Q2 2025) — a record high. Raleigh-Durham posted negative YTD absorption (-149k sf) despite a growth story.

🏙️ Atlanta’s office vacancy sits at 24.8%. Jacksonville isn’t far behind at 24.6%. Even Miami’s “hot” market is showing 18%+ total availability.

📦 Savannah’s industrial surge left vacancy at 10.8%+, with 41% of vacant space in massive boxes — oversupply risk in one of the nation’s busiest port markets.

💰 CMBS delinquencies are climbing: 7.29% overall in Aug 2025, with $44.1B now delinquent.

📉 $957B in CRE loans mature in 2025. Many will be tested against lower valuations and tougher DSCRs, especially in secondary Southeast markets.

🔥 And don’t forget insurance: Multifamily property insurance costs have soared 75% since 2019, hitting NOI across the Sun Belt.

🚨 Takeaway: The Southeast is still a growth story — but the risks are real. Vacancy, debt pressure, and insurance costs are reshaping the playing field.

👉 How are you adjusting your strategy to navigate the storm while positioning for the rebound?

#CommercialRealEstate #Southeast #CRE #Risk #Office #Industrial #Multifamily

Of course, these are in a sense two sides of the same coin. But the point remains: in about 5 minutes with Chat GPT minutes one can have their audience fired up or running for the hills – claiming to be a CRE expert with no personal knowledge or context of these facts whatsoever.

In a world of AI slop, thoughtful analysis, nuanced perspective, and above all intentional relationships will continue to be our focus – as always.

MEET THE TEAM

Anna Newton Spiers

Broker Associate

Josh Tew, CCIM

Broker

Monty Todd

Broker